quinta-feira, 23 de julho de 2026

The Spectator - I miss Roger Federer

 

(personal underlines)

I miss Roger Federer

We don't know how good we had it

(Getty images)

Epic figures leave epic gaps when they retire. The generations that follow are doomed to be compared to past heroes by nostalgic fans. So it is with Roger Federer. Novak Djokovic might be the GOAT (greatest of all time, to use the phrase du jour) in terms of sheer numerical achievement. But tennis is art, not science. Ballet, not bookkeeping. For the aesthetes among us who drink in the sight of on-court grace like champagne, Federer will always be number one. 

To answer why, you don’t need words, though heaven knows enough have been written about the grace of Rog. (David Foster Wallace famously called watching the Swiss savant ‘a religious experience’). Click on any clip and watch Fed glide on the court, near-supernatural in his poise. He moves like Wodehouse’s hero-butler did in the Jeeves and Wooster novels. Always ‘shimmering’ in and out of view, exactly where he needed to be. Roger’s lantern jaw and piercing eyes certainly didn’t hurt. 

Still, a note is needed on his backhand. That one-hander is still enough to turn any viewer Italian: Mamma mia indeed. Roger’s precise yet powerful shot, and how it ended with outspread arms, like a vicar saying ‘here endeth the lesson’, are the reason I practice the one-hander myself. This, despite the fact that it’s a dying art. Once, dozens of the top 100 male players used it. Now, it’s been near-eradicated by the reliably mundane double-fisted sledgehammer of the ‘2HBH’ (two-handed backhand). 

But if Roger’s legacy was about mere style, it would have sputtered out already. We miss the Federer years not just because of him, but because of the era itself. And good times they were too — it all looks impossibly rose-tinted now. Roger’s highest peak (commonly agreed to be 2003-2009) was a simpler time. The game itself had space to shine, unencumbered by today’s mountains of onscreen data touting win predictors and serve speeds. 

Nor were the pros hounded by cameras streaming their every move even in warm-up rooms (an Orwellian practice known as the ‘integrated world feed’). In the stands, fans got their kicks by chinning pintfuls of Pimm’s, not mediating the event with selfies. Rabid fandom did exist but had yet to seep into every digital forum. Tournaments today have lost that sanctuary, where you’re allowed to simply bask in athletic play and good sportsmanship. Matches grow rife with politics, as Ukrainian pros face Russians days after their hometown is bombed, or players (like the Paraguayan Adolfo Daniel Vallejo) complain that their match ‘needs to be refereed by a man. It’s very difficult for a woman to do it.’ 

Yet with Roger, you were in safe hands. The game was the thing. He embodied that sense of court as stage thanks to his sublime control and movement, the kind that make grown men moan erotically, and their wives mutter ‘he never makes those sounds with me’. But I also miss him because — whisper it — he was so pleasantly dull. Oh, charming as hell, polite and erudite, but without an ounce of edge or scandal. 

That lack of edge is why we’re unlikely to ever enjoy the comfort of a juicy Federer biopic. It’s hard to compete, drama-wise, against players who despised their sport but loved snorting crystal meth (Agassi). Or who can skewer umpires both for their calls and their fashion sense (Kyrgios, who once told an ump ‘Bro, you are taking the fucking piss mate. The ball was this far out, no joke. […] Your hat looks ridiculous, also.’) 

This spectrum is all to the good — hear me out. Tennis needs a rich cast of characters, the jokers and the kings, to keep its colour. You want people to root against as much as to root for, after all. So when Federer played the volatile but supernaturally gifted Nick Kyrgios in 2019, and cleaned his clock for the seventh time, it was a particularly satisfying victory for decorum over punkish gall. Roger, one suspects, is what the founders had in mind when they decreed, all those years ago, that tennis was the sport of gentlemen.

But for all the talk of his mythic calm, the clockwork Swiss could be sweetly vulnerable. In 2009, after losing the Aussie Open final to Rafa Nadal, his stoic demeanour crumbled. ‘God, it’s killing me,’ he wept in front of an entire stadium. But ‘I don’t want to have the last word,’ he added. ‘So Rafa, congratulations. You played incredible. You deserve it, man.’ This, perhaps, is Roger at his most beautiful — a good man, even when he wasn’t the best player

A confession: it feels a tad redundant to write this hagiography, one that merely adds to the endless toots of Federer praise. Sure, he could act the smarmy popinjay (remember when he strutted into Wimbledon in an all-white suit and military-collared jacket? He looked like a milkman on the razzle). But for the most part, loving Rog is like loving The Beatles — the predictable, unexciting choice. Other fans rib Fed-heads, snorting, ‘Really? But he’s so obvious…’ I suspect they find him unsatisfying because he made perfection look so damn easy: able to slice drop shots like cream from a bowl and quietly construct points with the patience of an engineer. 

Watch him in action, and it’s like hearing ‘Hey Jude’ for the first time. Those operatic highs, built on such simple foundations. The warm flow of note melting into note that floods you with a satori-like awakening: ‘Ah! So this is music.’ Or in Roger’s case, ‘Ah! So that’s what a body is for. This is how humans can move.’ David Foster Wallace was right: a religious experience. 

The Spectator - The real reason for Fifa’s hydration breaks

 

(personal underlines)

The real reason for Fifa’s hydration breaks

No, it’s not about player welfare

(Getty images)

More often than not, controversy over liquid refreshment at a football World Cup focuses on the unsavoury antics of England’s travelling support. But, in the US these past two weeks, the focus has been less on the booze and more on the boos that have greeted that dreaded moment, roughly at the midpoint of each half, when play must stop for a ‘hydration break’. 

These hiatuses were introduced, as so many Fifa initiatives are, with all the good will in the world. The idea was that when the temperature tops 32°C, the players should get a chance to take a short break to get extra fluids on board for fear of dehydration. They were used extensively in last summer’s Fifa Club World Cup in America, at which point US TV advertising execs, for whom 45 minutes of break-less sporting action are anathema, may have taken note. 

In a move that may not be unconnected to this new window of advertising opportunity, Gianni Infantino, the Fifa president, had the brainwave of implementing a hydration break 22 minutes into each half of all 104 matches at the Fifa World Cup currently taking place in the US. No matter the conditions, and no matter the fact they ruin the flow of a game (hence not being welcomed by the boo boys in the stands), play would be stopped for three minutes. 
The move was attributed to ‘fairness’, which on the face of it kind of makes sense – until you realise that no amount of hydration breaks will compensate for playing in the 40°C heat of Santa Clara versus the 20°C climate-controlled environs of the Dallas Stadium. But ‘player welfare’ is the shibboleth of modern football, so no one dared question the reasoning. 

But then, as so often, Infantino invoked that old witticism about being thought an idiot, and opened his mouth. According to him the ‘fairness’ wasn’t actually about the effect on the players’ health – no, the issue was that it would not be fair that coaches in some games get an extra break to talk to their players while in others they wouldn’t. 

In one fell swoop the head of Fifa kindly disabused us of the notion that a hydration break was actually anything to do with, well, hydration. If it was, there would be a 45-second pause at a suitable stoppage in play where a waterboy could jog on with 11 bottles of some kind of water-based refreshment, players could have a swig, catch their breath and the game could crack on with minimal disruption. 

But, no, Infantino sees these three-minute breaks as a chance for managers to make tactical tweaks, issue instructions and rally the side in a far more meaningful way than shouting into the void from the touchline. One might even call it a ‘mini half-time’ in each half, giving us – yes, you’ve got it – a game of four quarters. When in Rome, hey Gianni? It seems that the welfare of the players is actually not as great a consideration as that of the US TV advertisers. Infantino – a man who is either not as clever as he thinks he is, or who thinks everyone else is dumber than they are – will deny this till the cash cows come home, but it is hard to see it as anything else. 

Could this be the future of football? If the current UK heatwave is replicated at the end of August, will there be Premier League hydration breaks? If so, will the integrity of the competition be maintained only if every game then has them? Infantino would probably think so. 

But then, as with most controversial new measures in football, there arises a bonus backlash around its implementation. England’s game against Ghana –  played on a rain-drenched, 20°C kind of evening – was stopped at the 20-minute mark because of an injury. It was more than two minutes before the game began again, only to be stopped shortly after for the hydration break. Why did the break in play not afford a natural opportunity for the hydration break? As the BBC’s man suggested, perhaps the adverts weren’t ready to roll. When even less common sense goes into a rule’s implementation than into its conception, you know you’re in trouble. 

Still, as we watched Harry Kane et al huddled on the touchline to be berated by Thomas Tuchel even as the rain fell upon them, one was reminded of the words of S.T. Coleridge: ‘Water, water everywhere, and still a stop for drinks.’ 

Cartoon - Jim Unger (Herman)

 

How I love these. I wonder why?...








Reflexão - Tempos difíceis

 Rough days...(after lunch with Fontanelas Group)





Livro - La Société de propagande

 






Almoço - Fontanelas

Em 22.07.2026 em Fontanelas, na sociedade, com Pedro Teixeira (deu-me boleia), Paulo Santos e Tó Zé Sardinha. Zé António não pôde ir e Zé Luis e Tótó nada disseram.



quarta-feira, 22 de julho de 2026

The Spectator - What’s the real reason Nigel Farage has never been on Desert Island Discs?

 

(personal underlines)

What’s the real reason Nigel Farage has never been on Desert Island Discs?

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Getty images)

Long gone is the time, towards the end of the last decade, when we all laughed off ‘safe spaces’ as the latest, neurotic fad confined to university campuses. Few are laughing now, because in the ensuing years, as this risk-averse mentality has trickled down into mainstream society, the belief in the primacy of ‘safety’ is having outcomes that are proving ever-more authoritarian, frightening and – ironically – dangerous.

The decision last week by the British Museum to postpone a Jewish Culture Month event, citing its responsibility to guest speakers to ‘proceed safely, securely and without intimidation’ is a case in point. This incident followed a now depressingly familiar pattern, of events featuring Jewish speakers, or centred on Jewish themes, being abandoned out of cowardice, out of fear of what far-left activists or Islamists might do. In September last year, the Bristol Brunel Academy postponed a visit from Damien Egan MP due to planned protests by pro-Palestine activists. After Egan’s visit was halted, the Bristol Palestine Solidarity Campaign hailed it as a ‘victory for parents, teachers and the community’. Or in other words: a victory for mafia-like intimidation.

We have observed the same pattern when it comes to those being cancelled owing to their gender-critical opinions, or in the case of Kathleen Stock, leaving their job altogether because they feel their employers weren’t giving them enough protection from the mob.

There’s nothing new, of course, in capitulating to bullies, however you dress it up. What is novel is the emergence in the past ten years of refusing to countenance the mere presence of a person – and the likelihood of having him or her open their mouth, on the excuse that it might make people ‘feel unsafe’.

We saw this development again at the weekend, with the allegation that Nigel Farage has been ‘banned’ from appearing on Desert Island Discs. In his new biography, Lord Ashcroft claims that the Reform UK leader has been effectively barred from appearing on the Radio 4 programme, because it would make staff feel ‘unsafe’, with producers also fearing a consequent boycott from other potential guests on the show. The Corporation denies the allegation and has said it is happy to consider inviting the Reform leader for a future series. The BBC said: “We do not ban any individuals from appearing on Desert Island Discs and that includes Mr Farage.” Yet it does seem odd that such a recognisable figure as Farage has never appeared. Ashcroft quotes a BBC source who says that Farage ‘has effectively been blacklisted’, adding that at least ‘half the staff would think Radio 4 had become an “unsafe space” if he was on Desert Island Discs.’

Using the pretext of ‘safety’ – or the associated avoidance of causing offence, or hurting people’s feelings – in order to silence others has been a conspicuous trait of hyperliberalism. And it is this particular concern for feelings and safety that is behind wokery’s intolerant nature and consequently the authoritarian direction our society has taken since the turn of the millennium.

Whether it be the introduction of hate crimes in the first decade of this century, the rolling out of non-crime hate incidents in the 2010s, or plans to introduce laws and recommendations to punish ‘Islamophobia’ in more recent years, primacy has been consistently afforded to people’s feelings and subjective perceptions.

This preoccupation with emotions has been consistent with wokery itself, whose origins can be found not just in the postmodern theory that was in vogue in the 1990s, but in the therapeutic turn the West took in that decade, the era when we were exhorted to ‘get in touch with our feelings’. This was the time when some of us also started to notice the phrase ‘I find that deeply offensive’ commonly rolled out as if it were a rational counter-argument, rather than an expression of personal distaste. Thus began our era of loud, confessional, victimhood politics, in which the personal had become the political, when any disagreeable opinion could be shouted down – in the emotive and self-righteous manner of a guest on The Jerry Springer Show – with the cry ‘how dare you say that!’

You can gauge how profound this cultural shift has been by seeing how the language used by British Muslims has altered accordingly. Back in 1989, some of their numbers in Bradford took umbrage at The Satanic Verses because they deemed it blasphemous and insulting to the Prophet Muhammad. In 2021, when a teacher in nearby Batley showed a caricature of the Prophet, community leaders couched their complaints in terms of ‘safety and well-being’ and of the school authorities’ failure in their ‘duty of safeguarding’. Our dysfunctional culture has been weaponised against us.

Those students who grew up with ‘safe spaces’ have become today’s narrow-minded adults. These are the cosseted elite who have known little else but their cosy intellectual echo-chambers, a class who have become so unaccustomed to hearing challenging opinions from an outsider that they threaten to throw a wobbly at its mere prospect. Or, failing that, tearfully threaten to silence the nasty man altogether.

The Spectator - Are we allowed to feel angry yet?

 

(personal underlines)

Are we allowed to feel angry yet?

I get the sense that the political and media class badly miss Katie Hopkins. Back when the reality TV star was still a regular on our screens and in our newspapers, she could be relied upon to be the focus of attention whenever the people in charge didn’t want the public’s attention to be focused where it ought to be.

So when a British soldier was decapitated on the streets of London, or a suicide bomber went off at a pop concert packed with teenage girls, Ms Hopkins could be found saying something that a lot of people were thinking – only in a more colourful or unwise way. A pattern emerged whereby, within 24 hours of any atrocity on the streets of Britain, the political and media class would be talking about how inappropriate Hopkins’s comments were and how forcefully we must all condemn them. Her comments were generally said to be ‘divisive’, ‘hateful’ and ‘have no place in public life’. It was a comfortable place to be, because everyone could then avoid talking about the atrocity itself.

To some extent, Nigel Farage appears to have filled the deep need for such a figure. After Vickrum Digwa’s conviction for the murder of Henry Nowak – and the release of police bodycam footage showing officers handcuffing the victim as he lay dying – the leader of Reform said we should feel ‘pure, cold rage’. Keir Starmer described Farage’s words as ‘unforgivable’ and declared that this is ‘a time for serious work, not rage’, while the BBC and other media focused their discussion on the question of whether Farage should have spoken at all – and promptly also misrepresented his words.

Perhaps the Prime Minister and others might at some point produce a chart – or Power-Point presentation – explaining the feelings that the public are allowed to hold in response to various atrocities? For instance, under what situation are we allowed to feel ‘mildly irked’? What sort of attack might we be allowed to actually be ‘angry’ about? Is the ‘serious work’ Starmer now calls for something we are allowed to participate in? Or can this Defcon 1 response only be engaged in by the professionals?

Unfortunately the past week has provided another round of such questions. On Monday a Sudanese migrant living in Belfast was caught on camera trying to behead a local man on the city’s streets. It turned out that the perpetrator had crossed into Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland and been given refugee status.

Starmer described the attempted beheading as ‘sickening’, while the Chief Constable of the PSNI warned about the challenge of toxic online commentary. ‘All of our communities in Northern Ireland contribute positively to this place,’ Jon Boutcher said, warning people not to be ‘fooled or duped into a trap by people online’.

In the Commons the government had a swift response to a question from the Northern Ireland Unionist MP Jim Allister, who asked what might be done ‘to stop the importation of an alien culture that thinks it’s appropriate to try and behead someone’. The responding minister – Hilary Benn – spied his opening. ‘I’m sorry the honourable gentleman used the term “alien culture”,’ he said. ‘What exactly is he referring to?’ It shouldn’t be that hard to understand.

Historically speaking, Northern Ireland is not a place filled with pacifists. Indeed, it was almost touching that the First Minister Michelle O’Neill responded to the attack by saying that its citizens should not let ‘other people, who don’t care about here, incite hatred or fear’. She went on to say the public should not allow ‘people who are faceless to orchestrate campaigns on the street’. Because in the normal order of things it has been the job of Sinn Fein/the IRA to do just those things.

Still, the appallingness of the crime should not baffle the political class. Why not – finally – use it as a learning moment?

For years there has been a stock response whenever anybody raised the issue of the mainly Pakistani rape gangs. ‘So you’re saying that everybody from that background is a rapist?’ was deflection question no. 1. To which the answer was: ‘Obviously no.’ But then there was a clever little question no. 2: ‘So you think white British men don’t abuse children?’ To which the answer was obviously once again ‘no’. The questions were insincere because the real answer – as with the Belfast attack – is so obvious. We have our own rapists, but why exactly do we need to import more? It is a version of the question Germany might have done well to address in the past couple of decades: ‘Given our historical problem with anti-Semitism, ought we to import a large and fresh batch of anti-Semites?’

The term ‘alien cultures’ is a completely appropriate one. It would include the sort of cultures in which it is not uncommon for people to go around trying to behead others. This certainly doesn’t mean that everybody from any particular community should be accused of crimes they have not committed. But it also doesn’t mean we should all have to pretend to be completely ignorant of what an MP like Jim Allister is referring to.

Different cultures have different traditions, customs, habits and proclivities. They include different attitudes towards women, violence, gaming the system (including the asylum and welfare systems) and much else. The problem with this pretend ignorance is precisely that: it is a pretence. Everybody knows what people are getting at when they worry about the negative sides of their own culture, so why do we have to pretend to be completely befuddled when someone raises the negative sides of other cultures?

We all know the answer. Which is that generations of politicians and pundits have given us a problem that they do not know how to solve. But people have noticed the problem. And no amount of pretended bewilderment or deflection will cover that fact over for ever.

terça-feira, 21 de julho de 2026

domingo, 19 de julho de 2026

The Spectator - ‘Short king summer’ is here

 


‘Short king summer’ is here

Vertically challenged men are reaching new heights

The 5ft 7in Lionel Messi. (Getty)

Tonight, Lionel Messi will walk out for his third World Cup final at 39 years old. Should Argentina beat Spain, they will be the first side to retain the trophy since Brazil in 1962, and the case for Messi as the greatest player of all time will be closed for good. As a self-respecting Englishman, I will not be cheering for Argentina after Wednesday’s depressing semi-final. I’ll be silently supporting Messi for a very different reason. At 5ft 7in, he represents a victory for the least pitied disadvantaged group: the vertically challenged man. 

Back in 2022, TikTok was awash with videos hailing ‘short king spring’: a trend celebrating the rise (no pun intended) of famous men under 5ft 8in. Fast-forward four years and we seem to be enjoying a ‘short king summer’ of which Messi is just one face – or, rather, body. Arthur Fery (5ft 9in), became the shortest male tennis player to reach the Wimbledon semi-final in decades. The Odyssey actor Tom Holland (5ft 8in) revealed he had secretly married one of the world’s most beautiful women, Zendaya (5ft 10in). And Ben Duckett (5ft 7in) was our highest run scorer in an otherwise miserable Test series against New Zealand. 

As a self-appointed spokesman for the community, I feel a duty to highlight their achievements against the odds. At 5ft 8in, I am tall enough to be within tiptoeing reach of the average yet short enough to have looked up what that average is (5ft 9in for British men). Shorthood does not always come with shortcomings: I am generally grateful that I fit into a plane seat and am safe from Tudor beam concussions. But, in an age of competitive victimhood, it seems only fitting that short men receive their dues.

This summer, that has been particularly visible in the world of sport. Most team sports are heightist in all but a few positions. I’m sure we can each remember our favourite pint-sized strikers and wingers, from the 5ft 6in Italian footballer Gianfranco Zola to 5ft 7in Welsh rugby player Shane Williams. But the height of the average Premier League player is still 6ft. The England team at this World Cup are half an inch taller still – not that it helped them defend any crosses. Many athletics events lean towards taller competitors (the world’s fastest man Usain Bolt remains as gangly as he is speedy at 6ft 5in) and let’s gloss over basketball altogether. The only sporting areas where smallness is an advantage tend to be where weight is all important: jockeys, coxswains, gymnasts, Formula One drivers, marathon runners and cyclists who like going uphill. Being short and broad leaves even fewer options: a BBC calculator once told me that my dimensions were best suited for judo. 

Fery deserves his own mention. The Brit is closer in height to Ronnie Corbett than to his 6ft 6in semi-final opponent Alexander Zverev. Height confers two massive advantages in tennis: angles (particularly when serving) and reach. As the modern game has become more competitive so too have the players become taller: the average man in the ATP top 100 now stands at nearly 6ft 2in. There are rare exceptions: the diminutive Argentine Diego Schwartzman somehow reached world no. 8 before retiring last year. But to find a genuinely short Wimbledon champion one has to go all the way back to the 5ft 8in Rod Laver and a time when racquets were wooden and the bar was a lot lower.

If sport seems trivial, consider sex. Dating apps have provided the data to confirm heterosexual women’s height bias. According to OKCupid, men routinely lie about their height, by an average of about two inches. Women typically say they prefer men to be eight inches taller than them but men are, on average, only five inches taller, creating a clear market mismatch. Researchers have found that most women say they would prefer to date a man above 5ft 9in (although one assumes they might make an exception for Messi).

Mismatched couples are notable because they are rare – former French president Nicolas Sarkozy and the supermodel first lady Carla Bruni, F1 boss Bernie Ecclestone and his ex-wife Slavica. In both of these cases, as in others, the gentlemen possessed – shall we say – compensating assets. Depressingly there appears to be a fairly transactional trade-off between height and money. When economists studied online dating, they found that for a 5ft 6in man to attract the same interest as a 6ft-plus, he would need to earn roughly $175,000 a year more. 

The further bad news for ‘short kings’ is that acquiring that money also seems to be harder. Around 58 per cent of Fortune 500 chief executives are 6ft or taller. Every inch of height is worth roughly $800 a year in salary. The US electorate is no better: the taller candidate has won 58 per cent of American presidential elections, and every president since Jimmy Carter has stood 5ft 11in or taller. Interestingly we as a country appear to be marginally more meritocratic: in 2002 the nation voted Winston Churchill (5ft 6in) and Isambard Kingdom Brunel (5ft) as the two greatest Britons of all time.

Shorter men may battle against the odds when it comes to sport, sex, money and power but are magnanimous victims. We will forgo the awareness day, the ‘all-short’ shortlists, the quotas and the mandatory board representation. All we ask is that, should Messi lift the trophy again, the Argentines follow our example for diminutive heroes and elevate him on a 169ft column.

sábado, 18 de julho de 2026

Observador - E se ela ganhar?

 


(sublinhados pessoais)

E se ela ganhar?

A eventualidade da eleição de Marine Le Pen começa a fazer soar alarmes entre os que, da extrema-esquerda ao centro-direita, temem o peso e o significado de uma vitória da direita radical em França.

E bruscamente, neste Verão, o tribunal da Relação de Paris tornou pública a sentença, algo ambígua, que reabriu a porta à candidatura de Marine Le Pen à eleição presidencial da próxima Primavera.

A acção judicial contra Le Pen por “desvio de dinheiros públicos” tinha vindo a ser profusamente anunciada e comentada com catónico escândalo e severidade na comunicação social. Dir-se-ia que a fundadora e ex-líder do Rassemblement National, que tem como uma das suas bandeiras a luta contra corrupção, se teria locupletado pessoalmente com dinheiros públicos.

Ora o crime em que Marine efectivamente incorreu – a atribuição a funcionários do partido de um falso estatuto de assistentes parlamentares dos eurodeputados para efeitos de pagamento de salários –, sendo uma prática ilegal, não deixa de ser comum a vários partidos franceses e europeus. Tanto que pelo menos dois outros partidos franceses, o MoDem, do centrista François Bayrou, e o La France Insoumise, do esquerdista radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon, são réus da mesma falta; embora, diz o Le Point, a justiça francesa tenha feito vista grossa à prevaricação de Mélenchon.

Mas é assim mesmo: juízes bons são os que decidem contra Trump, invalidam eleições em que a extrema-direita está à frente, como na Roménia, ou dificultam a vida a Marine Le Pen; juízes maus são os que, não o fazendo, se revelam cúmplices da “cabala montada pela extrema-direita” para “pôr em perigo a democracia”.

Adiante.

Como solução alternativa ao seu possível banimento da campanha, Marine Le Pen e o Rassemblement tinham posto de pé a solução Jordan Bardella, o jovem líder do partido, também com boas sondagens.

Poderá a História repetir-se?

Agora, com a teimosia e a tenacidade de sempre, Marine retoma em força a candidatura presidencial pela quarta vez consecutiva, avançando com Bardella como futuro primeiro-ministro. À falta de melhor, o previsível Le Monde, na sua edição de 9 de Julho, a par de mais um punhado de eruditas dilucidações jurídicas sobre a responsabilidade penal de Le Pen, dedica uma longa peça ao “ressentimento de Bardella” com a inesperada passagem, ou o inesperado regresso, a número dois.

Entretanto, numa primeira amostragem, as sondagens favorecem Marine que, à semelhança de eleições anteriores e como representante do primeiro partido de França em percentagem de votos, ficará certamente à frente na primeira volta, com larga diferença sobre o segundo. Assim, na sondagem Opinion Way de 8-9 de Julho, imediatamente a seguir ao anúncio da candidatura, na primeira volta Le Pen aparece no topo, com 35-37% dos votos; logo a seguir, vem o ex-primeiro-ministro de Macron e autoproclamado “candidato da direita” Édouard Philippe, com 17-18%; depois, vêm o também ex-primeiro-ministro e líder do partido macronista Renaissance, Gabriel Attal, com 15-16%, e o candidato da esquerda radical, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, com igual percentagem.

A esquerda, além de Mélenchon, tem outros candidatos, como a socialista Nathalie Arthaud, o comunista Fabien Roussel ou a verde Marine Tondelier, todos abaixo dos 3-4%. Já o social-democrata Raphaël Glucksmann anda pelos 9% e, à direita de Marine, Éric Zémour, pelos 4%. Bruno Retailleau, ex-ministro do Interior, vê o seu esforço de colagem às políticas duras anti-imigração recompensado com uns simpáticos 11%.

Assim, tal como nas campanhas de 2022 e 2017, Marine terá assegurado o primeiro lugar na primeira volta e, logo, a passagem à segunda volta. Mas irá a História repetir-se também na segunda volta?  Era sabido que quem passasse com Le Pen à segunda volta tinha garantida a presidência, dada a taxa de rejeição da “extrema-direita” e a frente que logo se formava para “defender a democracia”. Foi assim que Macron foi eleito em 2017, com 66% contra os 34% de Marine, e em 2022, com 58,5% contra 41,5%.

Mas voltará a ser assim? É que, entretanto, o custo de vida, a insegurança e a incerteza das reformas e pensões agravaram-se. E quer à direita, quer à esquerda, há uma crescente preocupação com a deriva militarista e a febre armamentista de algumas elites, e com a possível escalada dos conflitos na Europa e no Médio Oriente. Também, os perigos da imigração descontrolada, cuja denúncia, há uns anos, vinha apenas do Rassemblement e que lhe merecia, e à sua dirigente, os epítetos de “racismo” e “xenofobia”, são agora partilhados pelos candidatos do centro-direita Édouard Philippe e Bruno Retailleau; e até, com alguma moderação, pelo macronista Gabriel Attal.

Sondagens e cenários

De acordo com as previsões, numa segunda volta contra Mélenchon, haveria uma vitória clara de Marine, com 70% dos votos, contra 30% para o esquerdista radical; já contra Édouard Philippe, Marine ganharia, mas mais tangencialmente, por 54% contra 46%; e contra Attal seria um 55% versus  45%.

Na sondagem da Elabe para La Tribune Dimanche de 12 de Julho, Marine bateria Mélenchon com 67,5% contra 32,5%, Attal com 54% contra 46% e Philippe com 52% contra 48%. Ora, em Março, Édouard Philippe era dado como ficando à frente de Marine, mas o estado da economia e da segurança (com a acção ou inacção da justiça no “caso Lyhanna”, a menina de 11 anos que desapareceu à saída da escola e foi encontrada morta seis dias depois) tendem a beneficiar o Rassemblement.

Além disso, a figura de Marine tem vindo a impôr-se.  Le Pen passou, dolorosamente, de herdeira a protagonista e, de caminho, transformou o Front National em Rassemblement National, numa luta difícil entre sentimentos filiais e razões políticas.

Mas sondagens são sondagens, e mesmo quando correctas, só valem para o momento em que se efectuam. Bardella é, no plano económico, mais liberal e menos social que Marine, já que Le Pen herda, não só o sentido solidarista da direita nacional, crítica dos excessos da “mão invisível”, mas também uma transferência quase directa dos votos dos muitos que, no princípio deste século, trocaram o Partido Comunista Francês pelo Front National.

Bardella ganhou alguma confiança do patronato e o seu romance com Maria Carolina de Bourbon Duas Sicílias levou o actual líder comunista francês, Fabian Roussel (3% de intenções de voto), a proclamar:

“Bardella nunca esteve ao lado dos trabalhadores; prefere beber champanhe no Mónaco, com a sua princesa”.

Porém, com Marine, as coisas mudam. Teoricamente, o pior adversário para a candidata nacional-populista seria aquele que, à direita, não se confundisse com o Rassemblement. Mas conseguirá um liberal conservador ou um conservador liberal como Édouard Philippe, mesmo correndo contra Le Pen, atrair os votos de um eleitor de La France Insoumise ou de um comunista?

Falta muito para as eleições francesas e até Maio de 2027 ainda tudo, ou quase tudo, é possível. Só não restam dúvidas de que a eventual eleição de Le Pen em França seria uma revolução no sistema europeu. Tanto que o alarme soou entre os que, da esquerda-radical ao centro-direita, já começam a sofrer por antecipação.

Observador - Killing me softly

 


(sublinhados pessoais)

Killing me softly

Um ataque limitado, como o dedo espetado no peito à porta da discoteca, é, no caso dos aiatolas, interpretado não como prudência, mas como medo.

As guerras não são conceptualmente muito diferentes das zaragatas à porta de uma discoteca. Primeiro, um dos cavalheiros lança ao outro um olhar turvo e demorado. Depois pergunta se há algum problema. O interpelado arregaça as mangas da camisa, insulta a mãe do outro e responde que problema nenhum, num volume que informa o bairro inteiro de que existe um problema considerável.

Segue-se o dedo espetado no peito, o empurrão para  assustar, o safanão em resposta e, cinco minutos depois, estão ambos engalfinhados no passeio, com as camisas rasgadas, um incisivo a menos e a secreta esperança de que apareça alguém para os separar. Não porque tenham descoberto subitamente as virtudes da paz, mas porque desejam abandonar a contenda conservando alguma dignidade e um número de dentes que permita mastigar.

A presente escalada entre o Irão e os EUA obedece a esta ciência exacta. É espantoso como certos dirigentes, embora rodeados de conselheiros, generais, serviços de informações e especialistas com diplomas de universidades caríssimas, ignoram não apenas os grandes tratados de estratégia, mas também a elementar psicologia das lutas. Aquela que muitos de nós aprendemos no recreio, num tempo em que as crianças andavam à pancada, estabeleciam hierarquias, faziam as pazes e voltavam para casa para tratar dos joelhos, em vez de passarem a tarde a olhar para o telemóvel.

Convém recordar que esta ronda de mimos começou com ataques iranianos contra navios comerciais que atravessavam o Estreito de Ormuz  e não com Donald Trump a acordar maldisposto e a decidir bombardear o Irão para melhorar as audiências. Os EUA responderam à violação do cessar-fogo, atingindo a arquitectura de interdição que o Irão instalou na região.

Importa esclarecer isto porque andam para aí alguns “especialistas” a retratar o regime islâmico como uma donzela inocente, surpreendida pelos bombardeamentos americanos enquanto regava os gerânios.

Teerão atacou a navegação comercial porque concluiu que podia fazê-lo.

E chegou a essa conclusão porque, há uns tempos, quando o regime estava militarmente atordoado, com as defesas degradadas, a estrutura de comando atingida e a iniciativa perdida, as operações foram suspensas. Teerão cambaleava mas, em vez de lhe aplicar mais um golpe, os EUA deram-lhe uma cadeira, um copo de água e tempo para recuperar o fôlego e voltar ao ringue.

Há quem explique esta estratégia  remetendo para a Guerra Civil Americana e o Plano Anaconda. Que consistia na progressiva asfixia económica e militar do Sul. A União envolvia a Confederação e apertava-a lentamente até esta deixar de respirar. No caso do Irão, até o regime concluir que o preço da resistência excedia o da capitulação.

A ideia possui racionalidade. Evita a perigosa tarefa de fazer a guerra num país vasto, montanhoso e populoso. Explora a superioridade naval, aérea, tecnológica e financeira dos EUA. Permite gerir a pressão conforme o comportamento iraniano. E situa Trump na agradável imagem de um homem que estrangula o adversário sem sujar excessivamente os sapatos.

O problema é que isto só funciona bem quando a presa deseja, acima de tudo, continuar viva.

Mas a Guarda Revolucionária, como sistema, opera num universo ideológico que não mede o êxito em pontos percentuais do PIB, sondagens e prémios de produtividade. A sua matriz contém uma componente milenarista, assente no martírio, na resistência, no regresso do Imã oculto e na ideia de que o sofrimento suportado em defesa da revolução possui um sentido transcendente. A morte não refuta a estratégia, a destruição apenas prova que se está a enfrentar as forças do mal, e o sacrifício da população pode ser convertido em legitimidade.

Não é que os dirigentes iranianos se levantem todas as manhãs ansiosos por alcançar o paraíso antes do almoço. Mas os custos que fariam recuar um governo normal podem, naquele ambiente, ser absorvidos, transferidos para a população e reinterpretados como prova de fidelidade.

Não é pois seguro que a estratégia Anaconda consiga obrigar a Guarda Revolucionária a capitular, especialmente quando se alivia a meio. Na verdade o regime tenderá a responder ao aperto  com uma escalada horizontal tentando aumentar o preço económico e político suportado pelos EUA, os países do Golfo e a economia mundial.

Esta estratégia de aplicação gradual da força tem os seus “quês”. Falhou no Vietname, por exemplo.

A Operação Rolling Thunder, foi uma escalada gradual, cuidadosamente administrada, pela qual Washington esperava aumentar progressivamente a pressão até Hanói considerar demasiado caro o apoio à guerra no Sul.

Mas os comunistas de Hanói perceberam que os americanos receavam ir longe demais, que os alvos eram escolhidos de acordo com restrições políticas e que havia tempo para reparar, adaptar e continuar.

O caso da Rússia é ainda mais elucidativo. No início de 2022, Putin invadiu a Ucrânia com forças mínimas, supondo que Kiev cairia rapidamente, Zelensky fugiria assustado e a resistência seria simbólica. Não resultou e o Kremlin  ficou então prisioneiro da própria aposta. Não podia retirar sem admitir uma derrota humilhante, mas também não conseguia alcançar os objectivos iniciais com a força empregue. A solução foi aumentar sucessivamente o compromisso, com mais soldados, mais mobilização, mais ataques, mais destruição, mais dependência da China, mais ameaças tremendas e mais mortos destinados a justificar os mortos anteriores.

É a psicologia da escalada em todo o seu esplendor.

Após a resposta em espécie, a decisão deixa de depender apenas do cálculo estratégico. O líder teme parecer fraco. Os generais querem provar que o plano é bom.  A população, depois de sofrer baixas, exige que o sacrifício tenha servido para alguma coisa. Cada custo suportado torna politicamente mais difícil abandonar o conflito, e a guerra passa a alimentar-se a si própria.

A alternativa à escalada gradual é a força decisiva, súbita, concentrada, dirigida às capacidades essenciais do inimigo e subordinada a uma finalidade política alcançável.

Em Junho de 1967, Israel, em vez de levar a cabo meia dúzia de ataques simbólicos para informar os inimigos de que estava ligeiramente incomodado com os seus movimentos militares, atacou de surpresa  todas as bases aéreas egípcias, destruindo  centenas de aviões. O golpe inicial decidiu militarmente a guerra antes que esta se transformasse numa longa sucessão de punições proporcionais, comunicados indignados e funerais nacionais.

Na Guerra do Golfo, em 1991, a coligação não enviou avisos mensais a Saddam Hussein, esperando que ele adquirisse bom senso por exposição prolongada a apelos e resoluções internacionais. Concentrou uma força esmagadora, definiu um objectivo político limitado (expulsar o Iraque do Kuwait) e conduziu uma extensa campanha aérea antes da ofensiva terrestre, a qual se resolveu em quatro dias.

Não se trata de bombardear tudo. Trata-se de destruir aquilo que permite ao adversário continuar a combater, antes que ele possa adaptar-se. Não se combate para castigar, atemorizar ou transmitir mensagens. Combate-se para o reduzir à inacção, se houver poder para isso.  Quando o inimigo possui capacidade para responder e causar danos sérios, um ataque que apenas o irrite é  um erro monumental.

O Krav Maga assenta precisamente  nesta realidade desagradável. Não se trata de lutar de forma  elegante, equilibrada e desportiva. Trata-se de  neutralizar rapidamente a ameaça e sair vivo e funcional. Não se fica a trocar golpes para determinar quem tem o currículo marcial mais impressionante. Muito menos se interrompe a acção quando o agressor cambaleia, oferecendo-lhe tempo para recuperar e procurar uma arma.

Mas foi isto, no essencial, que  sucedeu no caso iraniano. A suspensão das operações em 07 de Abril transmitiu uma mensagem oposta à que Washington julgava  enviar. O regime, que estava militarmente abalado, compreendeu que sobrevivera e passou até a  acreditar que vencera. Recuperou meios, reorganizou unidades e concluiu que os EUA preferiam gerir o conflito a terminá-lo.

Ao voltar a atacar navios mercantes no Estreito de Ormuz, está a agir segundo a sua natureza e a  testar a memória, a determinação e os limites americanos.

Recebeu agora uma resposta mais pesada mas o problema é que ela é gradual e ocorre depois de o regime ter recuperado parte do equilíbrio.  Os danos serão, por isso, superiores aos que teriam resultado de uma operação decisiva quando o regime ainda cambaleava.

É esse o paradoxo da aplicação gradual da força. Pretende evitar uma guerra grande e acaba por desaguar numa guerra maior em prestações crescentes. Cada gesto parece responsável e consequencial quando observado isoladamente. Somados, produzem resultados muito mais gravosos, com  todos a explicarem que ninguém deseja escalar.

Naturalmente que ninguém deseja.

Também os dois homens confiantes, à porta da discoteca, não desejavam acabar no hospital. Queriam apenas que o outro se assustasse e recuasse. Faltou-lhes antever que, depois do primeiro soco, já ninguém está a ouvir. A partir daí entram em cena a raiva, o medo, o ego e, no caso iraniano, uma ideologia que consegue transformar a derrota em martírio e o martírio em vitória.

A Estratégia Anaconda pode enfraquecer, empobrecer e destruir os instrumentos de agressão do Irão. Mas não há garantia de que o obrigue a render-se. Sobretudo quando a serpente tenta sufocar homens convencidos de que morrer estrangulados é uma forma particularmente honrosa de vencer

Um ataque limitado, como o dedo espetado no peito à porta da discoteca, é, no caso dos aiatolas, interpretado não como prudência, mas como medo. Uma pausa é  tempo para reparar radares, dispersar mísseis, escavar abrigos, reorganizar unidades e preparar a batalha seguinte e não uma oportunidade para negociar. A sobrevivência transforma-se em vitória, e cada vitória proclamada exige um gesto ligeiramente mais agressivo para demonstrar que não se tratou apenas de propaganda.

É isto, em síntese, o que se está a passar no Golfo Pérsico e torna-se óbvio que as coisas só mudarão com uma alteração da natureza do regime instalado em Teerão.

Com uma anaconda, uma  marreta ou, provavelmente, com as duas.

A alternativa é intragável: um regime islâmico dotado de armas nucleares, o domínio da região, a aniquilação de Israel e o controlo do fluxo do petróleo.