quinta-feira, 17 de abril de 2025

The Spectator - The game’s up for ‘anti-racist’ racism

 (personal underlines) - ...here we go singing and laughing (in Portuguese: "Cá vamos, cantando e rindo")


The game’s up for ‘anti-racist’ racism

There are only a few rules to column-writing. One of the strictest is never to waste time bouncing off the effluent of morons. So, for instance, it is a rule among British columnists not to use the term ‘Owen Jones’ in an article. It is too easy. Every couple of hours there will be another gaseous eruption. For example, this past week Jones, a YouTuber, has been engaged in campaigning to persuade a ‘queer’ British entrant in the Eurovision Song Contest to withdraw from the competition because of Gaza. It is by no means clear how much the citizens of Gaza care for the ‘solidarity’ of a couple of gay blokes in the UK. It is even less clear how anyone withdrawing from Eurovision would convince the Israeli war cabinet to halt the war against Hamas and persuade Hamas to return the hostages. But this is why the ‘Owen Jones’ rule exists. As it’s so easy, opposing him is fundamentally lazy.

For columns about America a similar rule applies: under no circumstances should you ever bounce off anything said on The View. This is a television programme that goes out most lunchtimes on a left-wing US channel and features four semi-lobotomised leftist women and a generally useless, token, vaguely conservative one. Anybody unclear on the format should ask an unemployed person or a student to explain the British show Loose Women and then imagine a less high-brow version.

Even so, rules are occasionally made to be broken, and this one is worth breaking here because last week something actually interesting happened on The View. The programme invited on the brilliant young writer Coleman Hughes to talk about his excellent new book The End of Race Politics. Hughes happens to be black, and is a member of a new generation that have seen through the race-hustle of some of their elders and have the intelligence to notice that if you view people through the prism of colour, it leads to hell – whether your obsession is with promoting white or black folks. Hughes’s argument, which is absolutely at one with Dr Martin Luther King’s message, is that we should try to judge people as people (remember ‘content of their character’?) rather than by the amount of melanin in their skin.

That isn’t to say that Hughes thinks race doesn’t exist or isn’t noticed by people. From the moment that he started getting questioned by Whoopi Goldberg he stressed that obviously people see race – but that a truly ‘colour-blind’ policy would mean that ‘We should try our very best to treat people without regard to race, both in our personal lives and in our public policy’. This got a smattering of applause from the studio audience and an ‘of course’ from Whoopi.

But it isn’t an ‘of course’, of course. Because in recent years young Americans have been indoctrinated into what is known as ‘anti-racism’. This is the theory – if you can call it that – pushed by pseudo-scholars such as Ibram X Kendi which claims that the most important thing about anybody is their race and that everything in the world is so racist that even the idea of being ‘colour-blind’ is racist. Put plainly, this school of thought says that you should be racist in order to be anti-racist. Got it?

Anyhow, Hughes patiently explained his ideas. But like most television shows in America, and Britain, the aim is never to get to the source of an argument and make people think. Instead, the tendency is to occasionally invite a heretic on in order to beat them about a bit and remind the audience why the fare they’re usually fed is correct.

In this case that task was done by a panellist called Sunny Hostin. Any viewer could see that she was clearly deeply antagonistic to what he was saying. After all, if you had made a media career out of talking about racism being everywhere, you too might feel threatened by someone younger and smarter coming along and saying that perhaps we need to move past all this.

Hostin duly took the most patronising and abusive position she could. She claimed to have read Hughes’s book twice ‘to give it a chance’ but said that it was ‘really fundamentally flawed’. Because Hughes invoked the name of Martin Luther King she also had to put him down about that. ‘I’m not only a student of Dr King,’ she said, ‘I know his daughter Bernice, right.’ This is a very sketchy way to try to gain the upper hand: there is no reason why knowing the daughter of somebody should give you a superior understanding of, or claim to, their work. But Hostin was gearing up for the personal attack she deeply wanted to make. She eventually got there when she said that ‘to be honest… many in the black community believe that you are being used as a pawn by the right and are a charlatan of sorts’. Hughes, she claimed, had been sinisterly ‘co-opted’.

Hughes is a nicer person than me, and promptly answered the substance of her argument rather than the ad hominem. In fact he said that ‘it would be better for everyone if we stuck to the topics rather than make it about me’. But of course people like Hostin cannot do that. Everything has to be about ‘me’, because otherwise you might fail in your great climb to the top of the moral hill where you can proclaim yourself winner (preferably with the added crampon of a vague connection to the King family).

Why did this midday moment mean something for once? Because in the desperation of a figure like Hostin – the desperate need to hold the ‘anti-racist’ racist line at all costs (even that of being wildly rude) – you can feel the breaking of a narrative. It was always a hideous idea to counter one type of racism by massively fuelling another one. The cleverer and more decent young people, Hughes among them, recognise that. If some of their elders don’t, well never mind. As people like Hostin and Whoopi Goldberg often say, with their penetrating insight, young people are the future.

Teatro - Música no coração





com o Diogo Novo








Reposição do espectáculo que estreámos em Setembro de 2024, agora em 21 e 22 de Março.

Manuel Ribeiro e João Leite da EA

Miguel do CO

José e Paulo Azevedo do NVLGV

Augusto Ferreira da Silva (com André e Ana Paula Antunes) do IST

Fernando Freitas e Céu do IST

Correia Cardoso, Anabela e Quiqui do Porto (Consulgal)


The spectator - Can multiculturalism be fixed? (Jordan Peterson)

 

(personal underlines)

Can multiculturalism be fixed?

Rotherham (Photo: iStock)

The rape gang scandal that has afflicted Britain compels us to review the assumptions that underlie multiculturalism. It’s time for us in the free world to look at human beings and their various cultures as they truly are, and not as the bien pensants wish and then so dangerously insist they must be

A society where women can bring their talents to the table as independent, safe, and respected individuals requires certain stringent psychological and social preconditions: a widely shared view of the value of women as equal, intrinsically, to men; a police and justice system with genuine integrity; as well as material and more specifically hygienic standards associated only with industrialised societies. It also requires effective birth control, and the mores that allow or even encourage its use. These conditions are prohibitively difficult to meet. Furthermore, their existence is taken for granted at our extreme peril.

None of these preconditions apply in oppressive authoritarian societies, where intercourse of any sort between men and women is severely restricted and punished, and all forms of sexual psychopathology flourish. It is nonetheless from precisely such societies that much of the mass immigration that characterises many Western countries occurs, in consequence of the idiot presumption that these mobile and often desperate people will bring with them none of the terrible presumptions and customs they are hypothetically fleeing.

Consider, in that regard, the countries that currently make up the world. A mere 24 of the 167 countries examined by the Economist’s Democracy Index in 2023 were classified as ‘full democracies’, characterised by respect for and existence of freedom, human rights, limited government, separation of church and state and rule of law. That’s one in seven, or 14 per cent. 

Twenty-four genuine, full democracies. What of the remaining 145, or 86 per cent of the world’s countries? Fifty-nine of them are fully authoritarian, replete with all the horrors such systems entail, or failed states. The vast majority of Muslim countries are fully and unabashedly authoritarian.

None of the possible reasons look good for those who proclaim that the rewards of multiculturalism are untrammelled and certain. First, in the Islamic world, divine law (Sharia) rules, and Sharia principles don’t mesh easily with the democratic idea of man-made laws, subject to change and improvement by consensual and voluntary agreement. For Islamist supremacists, God’s law (by their interpretation, of course) is regarded as immutable and superordinate to any human legislation.

The idea that Islam should govern all aspects of life, from personal behaviour to state laws, also directly conflicts with the democratic principle of pluralism and freedom to choose. Remember, as well, in keeping with all this, that the punishment for rejecting such claims (the price paid for ‘apostasy’) is, not infrequently, death. 

There is no manner in which any of this self-evidently aligns with the western principles of freedom of thought, religion and expression. 

The difference between the societies under consideration, bad as it is in general, is clearly worse for women. Traditional Islamic jurisprudence assigns very different rights and roles to men and women. A typical woman in an authoritarian Muslim country generally requires a male guardian’s permission to marry, travel or work. Their inheritance share is lesser – typically, half. Men can divorce, unilaterally, with ease, while women cannot. Polygamy is legally allowed in many of the same countries, but polyandry in none.

Women’s political participation is severely restricted, dress codes are frequently or even typically severe (as are punishments for transgression), laws against domestic violence are minimal, or absent, and in some cases marital rape is not recognised or criminalised. Access to education and employment is limited or absent, and women have limited control over their reproductive choices. The judicial systems also operate in ways severely biased against women, with their testimonies often valued at less than men’s, and their access to justice impeded. 

If those who inhabit a country cannot treat their own mothers, wives and daughters equally then their track record for tolerating others – including anyone who does not share their attitudes, religious and otherwise – is unlikely to be good. The rape gangs point to this terrible fact. The testimony from the trials indicates a common and obvious disregard, to put it mildly, for the women concerned. 

So what might be the way forward? There are glimmerings of genuine hope, not least within the Islamic world itself.  

The Muslim countries heading the Abraham Accords – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco – may well be heading a true move to a peaceful and cooperative future. Had the shortsighted and politically expedient Biden administration been willing to grant Donald Trump the least bit of credit for this remarkable development, and continued the process, Saudi Arabia would have also been a signatory. That could still happen, given the administrative change in the US. 

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, has stated his opposition to the Islamist extremists in a very blunt manner. He stated that he would ‘destroy them today’, that he wants to ‘co-exist with the world.’ The UAE’s Sheik Abdullah bin Zayed has been even more provocative and forthright, stating that, ‘there will come a day that we will see far more radical extremists and terrorists coming out of Europe because of lack of decision-making, trying to be politically correct, or assuming that they know the Middle East and Islam far better than we do – an attitude of pure ignorance.’

This means there are leaders within the Islamic world, not without influence, seeking to diversify and modernise their respective states, who are already more willing than their Western counterparts both to admit to the existence of the psychopathic manipulators cloaking themselves in the guise of pure religious Islamic fundamentalism, and to exercise severe control over their machinations. Equally moderate attitudes could be fostered among the Muslim immigrants to the West. 

That would mean, however, that Western leaders would have to bite the bullet (as their moderate Islamic counterparts already have) and help separate the wheat from the chaff within the Muslim immigrant communities themselves. This will be of great and true benefit not only to the moderates within those enclaves, but to those Westerners called upon to share cultural, economic and social space with them as well as to the moderate Islamic world internationally, whose leaders are endeavouring to do the same thing. 

This would mean justly and courageously identifying, pursuing and incarcerating or deporting the bad actors. This would mean applying the law of the land to the presumably oppressed and victimised newcomers, precisely as it is applied to citizens of longer standing. This would mean firmly and unapologetically noting where Western traditions, legal and otherwise, clash with the axioms of authoritarian intolerance. This would mean withstanding the accusations of ‘Islamophobia’, ‘far-right affiliation’ and the associated risk of reputation destruction, demolition of career and general cancellation that the leftist revolutionaries and the cowards and appeasers of the right are so happily willing to inflict.

This would also mean, finally, publicly admitting to the mass rape of thousands of British girls, the investigation of the causes of such atrocious behaviour, and the meting out of severe and certain punishment not only to the perpetrators, who are truly beyond the pale and must be treated as such, but to the enablers and allies who turned a blind eye.

This is a terrible pathway forward, made palatable, perhaps, only by the even more intolerable fact of the alternative: capitulation to the worst of men, cloaking themselves in the guise of the divine, swearing enmity to the West and to free women, posing true danger to the poor and marginalised, and threatening not only the free societies of the world but those who are striving toward freedom within the many countries who remain unsustainably repressive and authoritarian. 

When conscience calls upon us to speak, silence is a sin. God swore to Abraham that he would spare the evil cities of Sodom and Gomorrah if only ten good men could be found. If the eternally threatened metropolis is to survive, therefore, each of us is called upon to be one of those ten. It has been said that the truth will set us free, although there is no accompanying promise that such freedom will come without cost. But the hell that the lie engenders – and this includes the lies of the complicit and silent – is more intolerable and lasting than whatever trials emerge in consequence of honest discussion, negotiation and confrontation. 

We cannot make peace by pretending that it is here, already, when it is clearly not – particularly not when evil is obviously afoot. If we are going to continue the multicultural experiment – which is in part an experiment in how to make peace in the broader, international world – we will have to accept responsibility for dealing with the evil of diversity, as well as the good. This means standing up for what is right, even when the perpetrators of malevolence and crime are members of communities deemed oppressed.

We need to drop our naïve belief in the untrammelled goodness of diversity and multiculturalism. We need to respond maturely and with discernment to the true complexities of religious, racial and ethnic difference, which offer promise and danger in at least equal measure. We need to admit to the scale of the mass sadistic rape catastrophe, and thoroughly examine its causes. We need to document the reality of the complicit behaviour of those deemed protectors of the innocent, and to account for their appalling failure. We need a frank and unflinching discussion nationally as well as internationally about how to identify the criminals shrouding themselves in the guise of Islam, separate them from those who want harmony and peace, and stop them dead in their tracks. 

We need, finally and above all, to stop raising our moral stature falsely by lying and prevaricating, while sacrificing others to our pretension. 

The alternative is grim indeed. Not only for the traditional inhabitants of the UK and the West more generally, but for all those within the Muslim world who could and would move toward the enlightened freedom that makes the West the destination of choice for the truly downtrodden and dispossessed of the world.

Séries - Wolf Hall (T2)

One of the most interesting, if not the most interesting I've seen in a few months - has a lot of quality in the actors, in the wardrobe, in the exteriors (without tricks...) and some moments that stand out for their singular originality.





A série - uma das mais interessantes, se não a mais interessante que vi desde há uns meses -, tem muita qualidade nos actores, no guarda roupa, nos exteriores (sem truques...) e alguns momentos que primam pela singular originalidade. 

Livro - Crítica XXI (nº9)

 





Livros - Os diários de Reagan

 



domingo, 13 de abril de 2025

Desporto - Sumo (torneio de Março II)

 Some funny things


Or not...


Fantastic Ura!

Old love dies hard
Brothers Wakatakakage and Wakamotoharu
Ura funny drop

Desporto - Sumo (torneio de Março)

Onosato won the March tournament




Sumo prodigy achieves improbable triumph at the May Tournament

The fifteen days of the Grand Sumo Tournament ended in Tokyo on May 26. Due to the absence of so many injured top-rankers, the tournament turned into a showcase for new talent. Those who took center stage made things really exciting all the way to the finish. When the final act had ended, a star was born.

Dominoes falling

Heading into the tournament, fans had lofty expectations of performances from the upper echelons. One Yokozuna and four Ozeki were listed on the Banzuke official rankings, and the conventional wisdom was that one of them would wind up with the Emperor's Cup.

However, those expectations were immediately dashed, as all five top rankers bit the dust on Day 1. It was the first time in the modern era for all the rikishi from the top two ranks to go down to defeat on opening day.

Once again, many of the top rankers failed to meet expectations in the May Tournament.

The disappointment continued on Day 2. Yokozuna Terunofuji and Ozeki Takakeisho withdrew from the competition. Terunofuji cited pain in his left rib cage and right knee as the reasons for his withdrawal. Takakeisho had a lingering neck problem.

This was a huge blow to the organizers because a couple of the top division stars already were sitting out the tournament. Asanoyama and Takerufuji both had decided against trying to compete while still recovering from injuries.

Asanoyama is a former Ozeki who's now at the fourth-highest Komusubi rank. His strong and consistent performance against the top rankers in every tournament keeps fans on the edge of their seats. His knee got hurt during a provincial tour in April.

Takerufuji, as you may remember, was the winner of the Osaka tournament in March. He became the first top division rookie in 110 years to win the championship. So, needless to say, fans were looking forward to watching him try to repeat the feat in Tokyo.

Things continued to deteriorate. Ozeki Kirishima also dropped out of the competition on Day 7, citing a neck injury. Sekiwake Wakamotoharu pulled out on the same day too, saying he'd injured his right big toe during his match on the previous day. As a result, one Yokozuna, two Ozeki, one Sekiwake, and one Komusubi were sitting on the sidelines by the half-way point.

Crowded leaderboard

As the saying goes, when the cat's away the mice will play. Well, that's what happened in the sumo ring too. Quite a few rikishi scurried to take advantage of the situation. Those in the first-place group in the home stretch included Kotozakura, Onosato, Mitakeumi, Shonannoumi, Takarafuji and Oshoma. But after 13 days, two wrestlers stood above the rest: Ozeki Kotozakura and Komusubi Onosato, each with 10 wins and 3 losses.

Ozeki Kotozakura on the left, and Komusubi Onosato on the right, became the main contenders in the May Tournament.

On Day 14, fate took a different turn for them. Onosato took care of business and improved his record to 11-3, but Kotozakura lost and slipped to 10-4. So, Onosato took sole possession of the lead with one day to go.

And on Day 15, Onosato was in a match against Sekiwake Abi, who had 10 wins and 4 losses. All he needed to do was defeat Abi to earn his first title. Abi, however, wanted to keep his title hopes alive by defeating Onosato and taking matters into a playoff.

Abi fiercely attacked Onosato with his signature double-arm thrusts, but Onosato calmly fended them off and powerfully drove Abi back and out of the ring to take the match and the Emperor's Cup. Onosato's father was in the stands hoping to catch his son's triumphant moment. He was seen hollering and crying as his boy made sumo history in front of his eyes.

Onosato defeats Abi on Day 15 to claim his first championship.

Onosato became the first newly promoted Komusubi in 67 years to win the top division title. The last wrestler to accomplish the feat was Annenyama, who won as a new Komusubi way back in May 1957. Onosato also became the wrestler with fewest number of tournaments required to win his first title, doing so in his seventh tournament since his pro debut. That broke the previous record held by the March champ Takerufuji, who took ten tournaments to do it.

Winning one for the home team

Areas near the Sea of Japan are still feeling the effects of the massive earthquake that struck on New Year's Day. One of the prefectures hardest hit was Ishikawa, where Onosato hails from. During the championship interview, he said that he's really happy to have been able to show his victory to the people of his home region. I'm sure it made them even more proud of their homegrown hero.

During the victory ceremony, Onosato also talked about being close to winning a championship in January and March but not quite making it. So, he was glad victory didn't slip away this time. He committed himself to diligently following his stablemaster's advice and working hard to keep improving.

I think what propelled Onosato to the championship was his upset victory over Yokozuna Terunofuji on Day 1. Scoring a huge win right out of the gate increased this youngster's confidence so much that he was able to fight with poise the rest of the way. I've spoken with Onosato a number of times. When I asked him about his first match up against the Yokozuna in January, he told me that he was so nervous that his body just froze when the Yokozuna stood in front of him. By his own admission, he got demolished.

He told me, though, that even though he got crushed by Terunofuji, he learned a great deal from fighting against sumo's alpha male. He felt that he could become mentally and physically stronger and put up a better fight when he faced Terunofuji again. Well, that's exactly what happened. Way to go Onosato for working hard and growing fast by learning from a bittersweet experience.

Onosato on the right, scores a huge upset by defeating Yokozuna Terunofuji on opening day.

At 192 centimeters and 181 kilograms, Onosato is pretty intimidating himself. Adversaries have to be worrying about how much he can improve, because he was already overwhelming many of them this time. I have a feeling the best is yet to come from this 23-year-old standout.

Special prize winners

Onosato walked away with the Emperor's Cup as well as the Outstanding Performance Award and the Technique Prize. Sumo elders praised his ability to defeat higher ranked opponents on a regular basis with sound technique.

The other rikishi who received a special prize was rookie Oshoma from Mongolia. Oshoma remained in contention for a majority of the competition and made his presence felt by racking up 10 victories with nifty footwork, splendid technique, and blazing speed. Oshoma came to Japan on the same flight as Ozeki Hoshoryu, so he's hankering to catch up with his fellow Mongolian in the near future.

Special Prize Winners: Onosato on the left, Oshoma on the right.

Changing of the guard

For the past two tournaments, we've seen fresh faces winning the championship: Takerufuji in March and Onosato this time. Are we seeing a changing of the guard?

Yokozuna Terunofuji has been out of five of the past six tournaments due to injuries, partially or completely, due to injuries. Ozeki Takakeisho's absence this time is his third in a row. Ozeki Kirishima bowed out in the middle of the May Tournament with a neck injury; he'll be relegated to Sekiwake in the next tournament.

There's no question that those who ruled the sport with dominant presence and performance over the past several years have lost much of their mojo. Younger wrestlers are constantly challenging them these days, and the sad fact is that the top-rankers have been largely unable to respond. It's their job to show the upstarts that they still are better and stronger.

If they can't, as I said in my previous Backstories report, it's time to ship out. Sumo fans buy tickets expecting to watch the Yokozuna and Ozeki compete at high levels. It's not right to keep disappointing them.

July outlook

The July Tournament will be a good measuring stick to find out whether the old guard remains able to stand tall.

Yokozuna Terunofuji has to demonstrate he's worthy of competing with that status. The 32-year-old finds himself in a crucial moment. Fans would be hard-pressed to accept another absence.

Ozeki Takakeisho had better get healthy too, because he'll have to score at least eight wins to retain his Ozeki status. If he can't, he'll suffer the same fate as Kirishima, who got dropped down to Sekiwake for July. Kirishima will get one more chance to return to Ozeki but it won't be easy. He'll need to rack up 10 wins to get the job done.

Onosato will be aiming to win back-to-back championships to solidify himself as the number one candidate for Yokozuna. Yes, you read that right, Yokozuna! Finishing with 12 wins and 3 losses this time while competing at the fourth-highest rank of Komusubi, Onosato has set himself up in line for promotion to Ozeki within the year. Unless some major injury derails him, I can see him earning promotion to the second-highest rank with no problem and then making his way to the top rank in 2025. After watching his dominating performance in the May Tournament, I have enormous confidence in him. But, first things first. He needs to demonstrate May was no fluke and duplicate the type of performance he demonstrated this time.

One man who could be the spoiler for Onosato is Kotozakura. The 26-year-old Ozeki fell short of capturing his first title in May, but his consistent performance since becoming an Ozeki in March shows great promise. After defeating his fellow Ozeki Hoshoryu on the final day to finish the May contest with 11 wins and 4 losses, he looked dejected at allowing Onosato to walk away with the ultimate prize. When asked about it, he simply said "I have to train harder and become stronger." Don't count him out as a contender in July.

Ozeki Hoshoryu finished with 10 wins and 5 losses this time, which is way below what fans expected. His challenge is to get totally focused from the get-go. He started the May Tournament 0-2. If the Mongolian Ozeki can begin with some wins in July, look out!

One more wrestler to mention is Takerufuji, who won the championship in March. He showed his grit by winning the title then, despite severely injuring his right ankle on Day 14. Recovering from that injury is taking much longer than expected. I'd love to see him return to the ring in the next contest, but I feel it would be wise for the 25-year-old to stay on the sidelines for as many competitions as he needs to get back to full strength. He's a rising star who shouldn't spoil his career by returning too soon. He's someone worth waiting for.

Takerufuji is still recovering from an ankle injury. Fans are hoping it will be fully healed soon.

The July Tournament gets underway on Sunday, July 14, in Nagoya.



 

 

Livro - Porque perdemos a guerra

 Um pequeno livro com densas verdades, de Manuel Crespo.




























The Spectator - Will Trump join the strongman club?

 (personal underlines)


Will Trump join the strongman club?

The world’s most exclusive club, of presidents-for-life, is growing. It already includes Putin of Russia, Xi of China, Lukashenko of Belarus, Sisi of Egypt and Kim of North Korea. Then there are the other permanent rulers, MBS of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf monarchies, not forgetting Khamenei of Iran, and half a dozen African leaders.

Now Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is trying to join the club. He has engineered trumped-up charges of terrorism and corruption against the man who might beat him in forthcoming elections, Istanbul’s mayor. More importantly, Donald J. Trump openly admires such autocrats and clearly wants to be one himself. This is the age of the strongman – and the world is far more dangerous because of it.

Trump often muses that he might like a third term as president. This could be Trump’s usual trolling, but he has returned to the subject again and again. He should get four more years ‘based on the way we were treated’, because his first campaign had been ‘spied on’; he wasn’t ‘100 per cent sure’ he couldn’t run again; he was ‘so good’ people might say he should make a comeback. Trump’s former chief strategist, Steve Bannon – the keeper of the MAGA flame – says his old boss will run and win in 2028. Bannon was asked about the small problem of the US Constitution and its 22nd Amendment, which says you get only two terms, eight years. He gave a knowing smile. ‘We’re working on it. I think we’ll have a couple of alternatives.’ 

What on earth is Bannon talking about? He says he hopes for a once-in-a-generation realignment of US politics, as when FDR won in 1932. FDR had four terms – the only US president to have more than two – but that was because of the second world war and before the 22nd Amendment. Perhaps Bannon thinks it can be repealed if the MAGA movement grows strong enough. Other Trump supporters seem to believe their leader could just refuse to leave office. Trump’s old political fixer and confidant Roger Stone told me during the 2020 campaign that he might put troops on the streets in the event of a disputed election ‘if there is chaos’. That could be the end of American democracy. A former chairman of the joint chiefs, General Mark Milley, says Trump is a ‘fascist to the core… the most dangerous person to this country’.

A group called Keep Our Republic says Bannon’s ‘wild proposals’ should be taken seriously. The name comes from Benjamin Franklin’s remark that America would not be a monarchy but ‘a republic, if you can keep it’. One of those behind the group, Mark Medish, told me the presidency had built up secret powers throughout the Cold War and after 9/11. A bad actor like Trump could use war or some other national emergency to declare martial law. This would not necessarily be stopped by the Supreme Court, which had recently extended almost unlimited presidential immunity for crimes in office.

Taboo-breaking was a deliberate part of Bannon’s strategy, Medish went on. ‘Their method is to break things first and then normalise the rule-breaking… changing our political culture. This is how authoritarianism starts.’ 

Vladimir Putin is a model of how to break the rules and change the rules to hang on to power. As president, he simply swapped jobs with his prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, but continued to run things from the supposedly more junior position. Russian commentators called it the Tandem-ocracy, though no one doubted that Putin was in charge. A few years later, he swapped back. Trump might think he could pull the same trick. He could get elected vice-president, run things from there for a while as unchallenged leader of MAGA, then take the presidency again. The Constitution is a little vague on whether you can do that, but perhaps moving from vice-president to the top job wouldn’t count as a full term. As Bannon said, enigmatically: ‘We’ll see what the definition of term limit is.’

Trump admires Putin above all because he’s rich, possibly the world’s richest man. Michael Cohen, Trump’s former ‘personal attorney’, says in his memoirs that Trump spoke in awed tones about this. ‘Imagine controlling 25 per cent of the wealth of a country. Wouldn’t that be fucking amazing?’ I once interviewed the Italian architect of Putin’s Palace, as the Russian opposition calls the lavish private retreat built for the Russian leader and which they say cost a billion dollars that were stolen from state coffers. The palace is a neoclassical pile of marble in 20,000 acres on the Black Sea. It’s said to have an underground ice hockey rink, three helipads, a pole-dancing stage and a gold toilet with a gold toilet brush. Erdogan, too, has built himself a palace, with a thousand rooms, though it cost just $600 million and he sued over claims it had a gold toilet. 

The autocrats are united by more than a liking for gold leaf. Despite the bombast, they are often troubled characters, even surprisingly weak at their core. After he had been shot and hung by his heels alongside his mistress, Mussolini’s long-suffering wife, Rachele, said: ‘My husband appeared to be a lion, but instead he was a rather sad and small man.’ President Trump’s mental pathologies are well known, his character shaped by his bullying, ‘high-functioning sociopath’ father, according to a book by Trump’s niece, Mary. After Trump won the election last year, his insecurities rampant even in his moment of triumph, he posted on his Truth Social: ‘EVERYBODY WANTS TO BE MY FRIEND!!!’

Putin grew up the lonely child of parents traumatised by war, with few toys, chasing rats to kill them for fun. He survived in the dangerous world of the Leningrad gopniki– street hooligans – despite being physically small and weak. He became a modern tsar, photographed bare-chested in the Russian wilderness, though wearing lifts in his heels to make him look taller. Erdogan, meanwhile, tells a story of how his ‘authoritarian’ father once punished him for swearing by hanging him from the ceiling by his wrists. It was 15 to 20 minutes before an uncle cut him down. As a small boy, it’s said he would calm his father’s rages by kissing his shoes. He spent his teenage years in Istanbul’s Kasimpasa slum, which was run by gangs who had an honour code of humiliating their enemies. He took that code with him into politics.

President Xi of China fits the pattern. There was plenty of misery and humiliation in his childhood. As the son of a senior party official arrested in the Cultural Revolution, he was called the ‘child of a black gang’. Bookish and shy, he was paraded on stage at a struggle session, wearing a metal dunce’s cap. His own mother was forced to raise her fist and chant ‘Down with Xi Jinping!’ along with everyone else. Then he was sent to do hard labour at a school for delinquents. Now he is the man who says he feels called by destiny to reunite China. A war over Taiwan could blow up any moment. Trump certainly believes that: it is one reason he is rushing to dump Ukraine and make friends with Russia. 

The venue for the first US-Russia talks in three years was Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, hosted by Trump’s good friend Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The Saudi royals are everything that Trump admires: rich and ruthless, there for life, unchallenged and untouchable. MBS wasn’t brought up in poverty, but he is a product of the school of hard knocks, scrambling to the top despite being only the seventh son of his father, King Salman. It must have stung MBS when western politicians and businesspeople boycotted him for having one of his critics, the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, cut up with a bone saw. But the Jeddah talks allowed MBS to play host once again, and to play at geopolitics, the autocrats’ favourite game. 

As a group, the autocrats – and Trump, the wannabe – are thin-skinned, bitter, holding grudges that go back years, given to chest-beating, megalomaniacal, both sentimental and cruel. The US national security ‘principals’ who texted each other childish emojis to celebrate the bombing of Yemen this week – which killed some 53 people – were just following Trump’s lead. This is a man who cut off the trust fund being used to pay for treating his nephew’s seriously ill son, allegedly saying ‘Let him die’.

But the greatest danger lies in the strongmen’s grandiose plans, their wish to secure their place in history by redrawing the map. Putin has Ukraine; Xi, Taiwan; and Trump…Greenland. The Danes are taking Trump’s threat to annex Greenland both literally and seriously. Rasmus Jarlov, the Danish Conservative party’s spokesman on Greenland, told me they would never give in. He didn’t think the US would invade, but would just pile on the pressure. ‘We know that they’re not shy of harassing allies.’ The whole country was furious, he said. ‘It’s incredibly disrespectful and immoral, given the friendship and alliance we’ve had with the Americans for as long as anyone can remember.’

Jarlov is also chairman of the Danish parliament’s defence committee. He believes the new American F-35 fighter planes that Denmark is buying have a kill switch and he doesn’t trust the Trump administration not to use it. The Pentagon has denied there is such a kill switch, but the US could achieve the same effect by refusing to send spare parts, or just software updates. Jarlov fears something like that will happen in the campaign to seize Greenland, and he wants Denmark not to buy the F-35s. This wasn’t retaliation: they could no longer depend on the US. ‘Buying American weapons is a security risk that we cannot run.’ 

Is this the end of the rules-based international order? Trump’s generals tried to explain the concept to him at a meeting in a bunker in the Pentagon early in his first term. He called them dopes, babies and losers, adding. ‘I wouldn’t go to war with you people.’ Trump believes in America First, and so we must assume he doesn’t want to start another big war with a costly occupation to follow, no new Iraq or Afghanistan. But his menacing of Denmark, Canada and Panama strengthens the real predators: Putin and (despite talk of a US alliance with Russia) Xi. Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times has invented a term for this moment: neo-imperialism, the new age of empire. Small states must now fear a world without rules where, as Thucydides put it: ‘The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.’

The Spectator - What J.D. Vance gets right

 

(personal underlines)

What J.D. Vance gets right

Credit: Getty Images

J.D. Vance is just about the least popular conservative in Britain right now. The US Vice President’s treatment of Volodymyr Zelensky, and more recent leaked text messages discussing strikes on Yemen, have left Vance mired in scandal. Even in America, home of the MAGA movement, he is among the most disliked veeps in history, at least at this early stage in his term.

So it’s no wonder that last week Vance tried to move back onto his home turf and the issues for which he first became famous as a writer: the impact of globalisation on the American working class. In a room full of tech entrepreneurs, his championship of red-state, Main Street conservatism was clearly a hard sell. But look beyond the early political disasters of the second Trump administration, and it’s clear that Vance was offering something sorely lacking on both sides of the Atlantic: an economic worldview that is both reformist and coherent.

The Vice President and author of Hillbilly Elegy embraces a vision that seeks to strengthen American productivity, but with the firm objective of bringing prosperity to American workers. He makes a compelling economic case regarding the root causes of western stagnation and Chinese dominance, wrapped in an analysis that is morally grounded. The purpose of the economy is to raise general living standards in a way that supports families. He quotes the canonised Pope John Paul II, who perhaps surprisingly lionised the deployment of science and technology – so that man may earn a living, but also ‘elevate unceasingly the cultural and moral level of the society within which he lives.’

In challenging the wisdom of hyperglobalisation and arguing that growth must benefit American workers, ‘Vance-ism’ reflects an emergent body of thought within the American New Right which, behind the celebrity chaos of the Oval Office, has developed this new synthesis of thought. In this respect, US conservatives are intellectually ahead of their counterparts this side of the Atlantic, where centre-right policymakers remain either addicted to Reagan cosplay or otherwise believe that everything is (deep down) actually fine.

Achieving a cheap and illusory prosperity through cost-cutting rather than innovating and building will no longer do, Vance argues. One form this takes is the offshoring of production – whether it’s the manufacture of cars, chips, solar panels, steel or storage batteries. This reduces the costs of production and allows us to tell ourselves we are meeting environmental targets to boot. The theory is that value would flow up the supply chain. In fact, the opposite has happened. By suppressing input costs, offshoring has reduced businesses’ incentive to be more productive.

The second is the mass immigration of low-skilled labour – which is really the same thing. It just means moving workers to the West, rather than factories to the East. Migrants who cost taxpayers more than they contribute put strain on already indebted welfare states in the Anglosphere. And migrants earning low wages depress wages by creating an artificial oversupply. This allows margins to remain high and consumer prices low, even if businesses are bad at what they do. Why would you train a British or American worker to do a task more efficiently, or invest in labour-saving technology, when it’s cheaper up front to employ an underpaid migrant? The result has been the alienation of local labour and stagnant productivity – which in the UK’s case has not moved since 2008.

This is to say nothing of the cost to economic security when you rely on a strategic enemy for steel, electricity, the components that enable access to the internet and life-saving drugs. None of this would matter if the total integration of global markets had brought us perpetual peace on pain of mutually assured economic destruction. Clearly, it has not.

There is a new consensus in Vance’s mind and among his advisers. But there is friction even within the intellectual vanguard of the MAGA movement. Tech optimists in Silicon Valley look forward with glee to a workless future, in which all income is earned technologically, ordinary people’s material needs are met with passive incomes, and they are kept happy with immersive gaming, as one CEO boasted to Vance. But this would simply be an acceleration of the kind of Brave New World economics that brought the Anglosphere to this political revolution in the first place. There must be an accommodation with the populists who defend American labour – or the tech bosses will be biting the hands that politically feed them.

Vance is right that productivity gains from training, skills, technology and investment should not destroy the value of labour. It is measured in ‘output per hour worked’. So on the contrary, productivity gains should increase workers’ prosperity, allowing them to create more with less, earn better salaries and live more secure lives. But that vision of widespread economic improvement is already clashing with the tech lords’ preference for a digitised, borderless world where the proceeds of innovation are privatised and hoarded while workers become literally redundant.

To ensure growth benefits workers, there must be a rebalancing of the global trading order. Britain is in a worse state than America: we import nearly 40 per cent of our energy and consume £28 billion more in goods and services than we produce annually, financed by selling equities in our companies, private and public debt, and our scarcest national resource – land you can legally build on – to foreigners. 

Productivity has been frozen for over a decade, yet consuming cheap imports and importing cheap labour has papered over this. But it has hollowed out our manufacturing so we produce just two per cent of global output, while China now accounts for more than 30 per cent. Companies with capacity for productive growth have gone overseas and good jobs have disappeared.

Autarky for America, let alone Britain, would be impossible and mad. But the current model cannot go on. The old economic religion was blind to inequality so long as growth was achieved. But it has not. The remoralising of Anglo-American thinking on economics can and must go hand in hand with a better and saner commitment to innovation and production that benefits workers and families, not transferring wealth up to the owners of technology or overseas to Beijing.

In many ways Vance is wrong, but Vance-ism is right.

Livro - Crítica XXI (nº 5)